Reverend Bayes Eschews Politics
September 25, 2011 2 Comments
Most people can’t do bayesian inference properly. in politics bayesian-type inference is
grotesquely misused. Therefore, I think the standard for public discourse should
discourage this inference. I may be completely wrong about my interpretation.
But im specifically talking about things like trusting of sources, corrupting influences etc.
Sides are able to simply dismiss fully legitimate arguments from their rivals by identifying
the specific arguments with the most disreputable and/or disliked institution/person
making that argument, eg. identifying free trade with Heritage or AEI, anti-torture arguments
with ACLU (bad in some people’s worldviews).
We should simply strive to answer the best arguments on the other side, and once we’re fully
and completely confident that we have made a good-faith effort to address the best argument,
and all we get in return is ad-hominem and/or bad faith…should we START to make bayesian
inferences about sources, corrupting influences, follow-the-money thinking, etc.